Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

885
FXUS61 KCAR 250939
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
539 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Lowered Saturday AM low temperatures a few degrees and lowered
  high temperatures for Saturday with a much more sharp Arctic
  airmass.

- Raised winds/wind gusts for Friday afternoon with stronger
  mixing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of snow late tonight into Thursday morning could make
roads slushy, snow covered and slippery over central and northern
areas for the Thursday morning commute. Snow will change to rain
from south to north Thursday morning then diminish around
midday. Another period of snow and rain is likely Thursday
night.

2) Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to spread across
the region from Friday night into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of snow late tonight into Thursday
morning could make roads slushy, snow covered and slippery over
central and northern areas for the Thursday morning commute.
Snow will change to rain from south to north Thursday morning
then diminish around midday. Another period of snow and rain is
likely Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A fast moving shallow wave of low pressure will approach from
the Great Lakes late Wednesday night and spread overrunning snow
from west to east across the area after midnight into the pre-
dawn hours Thursday morning with rain Downeast. Snow will be
falling across central and northern areas early Thursday morning
likely making roads sloppy and snow covered for the Thursday
morning commute. The snow will change to rain over central areas
by late morning and diminish in intensity across the north
around midday. Roads will just be wet across central areas by
late Thursday morning and across the north by around midday
Thursday as the precipitation diminishes and moves away to the
east.

Another fast moving shallow wave of low pressure will come
through Thursday night. This next go-round will be mostly rain
over the area with some snow over the far north which may coat
roads over the north overnight. Arctic air will begin to surge
in following this system early Friday morning. This could
produce some icy surfaces for the Friday morning commute as
wetness on roads, and any slush across the north, freezes. By
late morning Friday most road surfaces should be dry but icy
patches may remain on some driveways and walkways.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing probability of modified Arctic air
to spread across the region from Friday night into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Canadian high pressure will build across the region Friday into
Saturday, gradually settling southward on Sunday before moving
offshore Sunday night. This pattern will usher in a return of
cold air to end the workweek, followed by a moderating airmass
early next week.

Friday will feature non-diurnal temperature trends, with high
temperatures occurring in the morning before steadily falling
throughout the afternoon. By late afternoon, actual temperatures
will drop into the teens across Northern Aroostook, Northern
Somerset, and Northern and Central Piscataquis counties.
Southeastern Aroostook, Northern and Central Penobscot, and
Northern Washington counties will fall into the 20s, while the
rest of the forecast area will see temperatures near or in the
lower 30s. Coupled with northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph,
late afternoon wind chills will plunge into the single digits
across most of the North, with the exception of northern
Penobscot and southeastern Aroostook counties, which will hold
in the teens. Meanwhile, Downeast Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot
regions will experience late-day wind chills in the 20s.

The cold air deepens Friday night as Arctic air pours into
Maine. Using the NOAA Hysplit Backward Trajectory model this
airmass developed out of the Beaufort Sea area in the Arctic
Ocean. Friday night lows plummet to between 10 below and 5
above zero across the North, and into the mid-single digits to
lower teens elsewhere. Brisk northwest winds will drive wind
chills down to 10 to 15 below zero across most of the North, and
near zero along the coastal Downeast region. Wind chills of
this magnitude can cause frostbite on exposed skin within 30 to
60 minutes.

Unseasonably cold conditions will peak on Saturday, with highs
running 15 to 20 degrees below normal in the upper teens north
with mid to upper 20s south. Overnight lows will be 10 to 15
degrees below normal. Temperatures will moderate sharply Sunday
into Sunday night, bringing highs and lows to within 5 to 10
degrees of normal. With relatively light winds expected during
this weekend timeframe, wind chills are not expected to produce
any significant impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today...VFR today
with the possible exception of a brief period of MVFR or IFR
conditions in snow showers over the far north early this
morning. Winds W 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts...diminishing
this afternoon.

Tonight...VFR dropping to MVFR this evening then IFR by around
midnight. Winds light and variable becoming SE 5 to 10 kt after
midnight.

Thursday...LIFR to IFR during the morning then IFR to MVFR during
the midday and afternoon. Winds S around 10 kt.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.

Saturday...VFR. W-NW winds 5-15kt.

Sunday...VFR. Brief MVFR vsby/cigs possible due to -SHSN at
northern terms. W winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA will be up today for W winds gusting up to 30 kt. Winds will
drop below SCA this afternoon then increase to SCA late tonight for
S winds gusting up to 30 kt. Some gusts on Thursday may approach 35
kt over the offshore waters. Seas 5 to 6 ft today, dropping to 3 ft
tonight, then building up to 8 ft on Thursday.

Thursday night winds shift NW and brief lull in SCA conditions
for a few hours. As the sun rises expecting SCA wind gusts over
the Coastal Waters with intra-coastal waters likely <25kt. Seas
generally 4-6ft so an SCA will likely need to remain for waves.
SCA for winds/waves expected Fri night into Sat AM. Winds/waves
expected to generally be below SCA conditions for the weekend
but low end possibility of SCA level waves Sun.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS